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    “True M” versus Harrington’s M and Why Tournament Structure Matters

    by Arnold

    Snyder

    (From Blackjack Forum Vol. XXVI #1, Spring 2007)

    © Blackjack 7️⃣ Forum Online

    2007

    Critical Flaws in the Theory and Use of “M” in Poker Tournaments

    In this article,

    I will address critical 7️⃣ flaws in the concept of “M” as a measure of player viability in

    poker tournaments. I will specifically be addressing 7️⃣ the concept of M as put forth by

    Dan Harrington in Harrington on Hold’em II (HOH II). My book, The 7️⃣ Poker Tournament

    Formula (PTF), has been criticized by some poker writers who contend that my strategies

    for fast tournaments must 7️⃣ be wrong, since they violate strategies based on Harrington’s

    M.

    I will show that it is instead Harrington’s theory and advice 7️⃣ that are wrong. I will

    explain in this article exactly where Harrington made his errors, why Harrington’s

    strategies are incorrect 7️⃣ not only for fast tournaments, but for slow blind structures

    as well, and why poker tournament structure, which Harrington ignores, 7️⃣ is the key

    factor in devising optimal tournament strategies.

    This article will also address a

    common error in the thinking of 7️⃣ players who are using a combination of PTF and HOH

    strategies in tournaments. Specifically, some of the players who are 7️⃣ using the

    strategies from my book, and acknowledge that structure is a crucial factor in any

    poker tournament, tell me 7️⃣ they still calculate M at the tables because they believe it

    provides a “more accurate” assessment of a player’s current 7️⃣ chip stack status than the

    simpler way I propose—gauging your current stack as a multiple of the big blind. But 7️⃣ M,

    in fact, is a less accurate number, and this article will explain why.

    There is a way

    to calculate what 7️⃣ I call “True M,” that would provide the information that Harrington’s

    false M is purported to provide, but I do 7️⃣ not believe there is any real strategic value

    in calculating this number, and I will explain the reason for that 7️⃣ too.

    The Basics of

    Harrington’s M Strategy

    Harrington uses a zone system to categorize a player’s current

    chip position. In the “green 7️⃣ zone,” a player’s chip stack is very healthy and the

    player can use a full range of poker skills. As 7️⃣ a player’s chip stack diminishes, the

    player goes through the yellow zone, the orange zone, the red zone, and finally 7️⃣ the

    dead zone. The zones are identified by a simple rating number Harrington calls

    “M.”

    What Is “M”?

    In HOH II, on 7️⃣ page 125, Dan Harrington defines M as: “…the ratio of

    your stack to the current total of blinds and antes.” 7️⃣ For example, if your chip stack

    totals 3000, and the blinds are 100-200 (with no ante), then you find your 7️⃣ M by

    dividing 3000 / 300 = 10.

    On page 126, Harrington expounds on the meaning of M to a

    tournament 7️⃣ player: “What M tells you is the number of rounds of the table that you can

    survive before being blinded 7️⃣ off, assuming you play no pots in the meantime.” In other

    words, Harrington describes M as a player’s survival indicator.

    If 7️⃣ your M = 5, then

    Harrington is saying you will survive for five more rounds of the table (five circuits

    7️⃣ of the blinds) if you do not play a hand. At a 10-handed table, this would mean you

    have about 7️⃣ 50 hands until you would be blinded off. All of Harrington’s zone strategies

    are based on this understanding of how 7️⃣ to calculate M, and what M means to your current

    chances of tournament survival.

    Amateur tournament players tend to tighten up 7️⃣ their

    play as their chip stacks diminish. They tend to become overly protective of their

    remaining chips. This is due 7️⃣ to the natural survival instinct of players. They know

    that they cannot purchase more chips if they lose their whole 7️⃣ stack, so they try to

    hold on to the precious few chips that are keeping them alive.

    If they have read 7️⃣ a few

    books on the subject of tournament play, they may also have been influenced by the

    unfortunate writings of 7️⃣ Mason Malmuth and David Sklansky, who for many years have

    promulgated the misguided theory that the fewer chips you have 7️⃣ in a tournament, the

    more each chip is worth. (This fallacious notion has been addressed in other articles

    in our 7️⃣ online Library, including: Chip Value in Poker Tournaments.)

    But in HOH II,

    Harrington explains that as your M diminishes, which is 7️⃣ to say as your stack size

    becomes smaller in relation to the cost of the blinds and antes, “…the blinds 7️⃣ are

    starting to catch you, so you have to loosen your play… you have to start making moves

    with hands 7️⃣ weaker than those a conservative player would elect to play.” I agree with

    Harrington on this point, and I also 7️⃣ concur with his explanation of why looser play is

    correct as a player’s chip stack gets shorter: “Another way of 7️⃣ looking at M is to see

    it as a measure of just how likely you are to get a better 7️⃣ hand in a better situation,

    with a reasonable amount of money left.” (Italics his.)

    In other words, Harrington

    devised his looser 7️⃣ pot-entering strategy, which begins when your M falls below 20, and

    goes through four zones as it continues to shrink, 7️⃣ based on the likelihood of your

    being dealt better cards to make chips with than your present starting hand. For

    7️⃣ example, with an M of 15 (yellow zone according to Harrington), if a player is dealt an

    8-3 offsuit in 7️⃣ early position (a pretty awful starting hand by anyone’s definition),

    Harrington’s yellow zone strategy would have the player fold this 7️⃣ hand preflop because

    of the likelihood that he will be dealt a better hand to play while he still has 7️⃣ a

    reasonable amount of money left.

    By contrast, if the player is dealt an ace-ten offsuit

    in early position, Harrington’s yellow 7️⃣ zone strategy would advise the player to enter

    the pot with a raise. This play is not advised in Harrington’s 7️⃣ green zone strategy

    (with an M > 20) because he considers ace-ten offsuit to be too weak of a hand 7️⃣ to play

    from early position, since your bigger chip stack means you will be likely to catch a

    better pot-entering 7️⃣ opportunity if you wait. The desperation of your reduced chip stack

    in the yellow zone, however, has made it necessary 7️⃣ for you to take a risk with this

    hand because with the number of hands remaining before you will be 7️⃣ blinded off, you are

    unlikely “…to get a better hand in a better situation, with a reasonable amount of

    money 7️⃣ left.”

    Again, I fully agree with the logic of loosening starting hand

    requirements as a player’s chip stack gets short. In 7️⃣ fact, the strategies in The Poker

    Tournament Formula are based in part (but not in whole) on the same logic.

    But 7️⃣ despite

    the similarity of some of the logic behind our strategies, there are big differences

    between our specific strategies for 7️⃣ any specific size of chip stack. For starters, my

    strategy for entering a pot with what I categorize as a 7️⃣ “competitive stack” (a stack

    size more or less comparable to Harrington’s “green zone”) is far looser and more

    aggressive than 7️⃣ his. And my short-stack strategies are downright maniacal compared to

    Harrington’s strategies for his yellow, orange, and red zones.

    There are 7️⃣ two major

    reasons why our strategies are so different, even though we agree on the logic that

    looser play is 7️⃣ required as stacks get shorter. Again, the first is a fundamental

    difference in our overriding tournament theory, which I will 7️⃣ deal with later in this

    article. The second reason, which I will deal with now, is a serious flaw in

    7️⃣ Harrington’s method of calculating and interpreting M. Again, what Harrington

    specifically assumes, as per HOH II, is that: “What M 7️⃣ tells you is the number of rounds

    of the table that you can survive before being blinded off, assuming you 7️⃣ play no pots

    in the meantime.”

    But that’s simply not correct. The only way M, as defined by

    Harrington, could indicate 7️⃣ the number of rounds a player could survive is by ignoring

    the tournament structure.

    Why Tournament Structure Matters in Devising Optimal

    7️⃣ Strategy

    Let’s look at some sample poker tournaments to show how structure matters, and

    how it affects the underlying meaning of 7️⃣ M, or “the number of rounds of the table that

    you can survive before being blinded off, assuming you play 7️⃣ no pots in the meantime.”

    Let’s say the blinds are 50-100, and you have 3000 in chips. What is your 7️⃣ M, according

    to Harrington?

    M = 3000 / 150 = 20

    So, according to the explanation of M provided in

    HOH II, 7️⃣ you could survive 20 more rounds of the table before being blinded off,

    assuming you play no pots in the 7️⃣ meantime. This is not correct, however, because the

    actual number of rounds you can survive before being blinded off is 7️⃣ entirely dependent

    on the tournament’s blind structure.

    For example, what if this tournament has 60-minute

    blind levels? Would you survive 20 7️⃣ rounds with the blinds at 50-100 if you entered no

    pots? No way. Assuming this is a ten-handed table, you 7️⃣ would go through the blinds

    about once every twenty minutes, which is to say, you would only play three rounds 7️⃣ at

    this 50-100 level. Then the blinds would go up.

    If we use the blind structure from the

    WSOP Circuit events 7️⃣ recently played at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, after 60 minutes

    the blinds would go from 50-100 to 100-200, then 7️⃣ to 100-200 with a 25 ante 60 minutes

    after that. What is the actual number of rounds you would survive 7️⃣ without entering a

    pot in this tournament from this point? Assuming you go through the blinds at each

    level three 7️⃣ times,

    3 x 150 = 450

    3 x 300 = 900

    3 x 550 = 1650

    Add up the blind costs:

    450 + 900 7️⃣ + 1650 = 3000.

    That’s a total of only 9 rounds.

    This measure of the true

    “…number of rounds of the table 7️⃣ that you can survive before being blinded off, assuming

    you play no pots in the meantime,” is crucial in evaluating 7️⃣ your likelihood of getting

    “…a better hand in a better situation, with a reasonable amount of money left,” and it

    7️⃣ is entirely dependent on this tournament’s blind structure. For the rest of this

    article, I will refer to this more 7️⃣ accurate structure-based measure as “True M.” True M

    for this real-world tournament would indicate to the player that his survival 7️⃣ time was

    less than half that predicted by Harrington’s miscalculation of M.

    True M in Fast Poker

    Tournaments

    To really drill home 7️⃣ the flaw in M—as Harrington defines it—let’s look at a

    fast tournament structure. Let’s assume the exact same 3000 in 7️⃣ chips, and the exact

    same 50-100 blind level, but with the 20-minute blind levels we find in many small

    buy-in 7️⃣ tourneys. With this blind structure, the blinds will be one level higher each

    time we go through them. How many 7️⃣ rounds of play will our 3000 in chips survive,

    assuming we play no pots? (Again, I’ll use the Caesars WSOP 7️⃣ levels, as above, changing

    only the blind length.)

    150 + 300 + 550 + 1100 (4 rounds) = 1950

    The next round 7️⃣ the

    blinds are 300-600 with a 75 ante, so the cost of a ten-handed round is 1650, and we

    only 7️⃣ have 1050 remaining. That means that with this faster tournament structure, our

    True M at the start of that 50-100 7️⃣ blind level is actually about 4.6, a very far cry

    from the 20 that Harrington would estimate, and quite far 7️⃣ from the 9 rounds we would

    survive in the 60-minute structure described above.

    And, in a small buy-in tournament

    with 15-minute 7️⃣ blind levels—and these fast tournaments are very common in poker rooms

    today—this same 3000 chip position starting at this same 7️⃣ blind level would indicate a

    True M of only 3.9.

    True M in Slow Poker Tournaments

    But what if you were playing 7️⃣ in

    theR$10K main event of the WSOP, where the blind levels last 100 minutes? In this

    tournament, if you were 7️⃣ at the 50-100 blind level with 3000 in chips, your True M would

    be 11.4. (As a matter of fact, 7️⃣ it has only been in recent years that the blind levels

    of the main event of the WSOP have been 7️⃣ reduced from their traditional 2-hour length.

    With 2-hour blind levels, as Harrington would have played throughout most of the years

    7️⃣ he has played the main event, his True M starting with this chip position would be

    12.6.)

    Unfortunately, that’s still nowhere 7️⃣ near the 20 rounds Harrington’s M gives

    you.

    True M Adjusts for Tournament Structure

    Note that in each of these tournaments, 20

    7️⃣ M means something very different as a survival indicator. True M shows that the

    survival equivalent of 3000 in chips 7️⃣ at the same blind level can range from 3.9 rounds

    (39 hands) to 12.6 (126 hands), depending solely on the 7️⃣ length of the

    blinds.

    Furthermore, even within the same blind level of the same tournament, True M

    can have different values, 7️⃣ depending on how deep you are into that blind level. For

    example, what if you have 3000 in chips but 7️⃣ instead of being at the very start of that

    50-100 blind level (assuming 60-minute levels), you are somewhere in the 7️⃣ middle of it,

    so that although the blinds are currently 50-100, the blinds will go up to the 100-200

    level 7️⃣ before you go through them three more times? Does this change your True M?

    It

    most certainly does. That True M 7️⃣ of 9 in this tournament, as demonstrated above, only

    pertains to your chip position at the 50-100 blind level if 7️⃣ you will be going through

    those 50-100 blinds three times before the next level. If you’ve already gone through

    those 7️⃣ blinds at that level one or more times, then your True M will not be 9, but will

    range from 7️⃣ 6.4 to 8.1, depending on how deep into the 50-100 blind level you are.

    Most

    important, if you are under the 7️⃣ mistaken impression that at any point in the 50-100

    blind level in any of the tournaments described above, 3000 in 7️⃣ chips is sufficient to

    go through 20 rounds of play (200 hands), you are way off the mark. What Harrington

    7️⃣ says “M tells you,” is not at all what M tells you. If you actually stopped and

    calculated True M, 7️⃣ as defined above, then True M would tell you what Harrington’s M

    purports to tell you.

    And if it really is 7️⃣ important for you to know how many times you

    can go through the blinds before you are blinded off, then 7️⃣ why not at least figure out

    the number accurately? M, as described in Harrington’s book, is simply woefully

    inadequate at 7️⃣ performing this function.

    If Harrington had actually realized that his M

    was not an accurate survival indicator, and he had stopped 7️⃣ and calculated True M for a

    variety of tournaments, would he still be advising you to employ the same starting 7️⃣ hand

    standards and playing strategies at a True M of 3.9 (with 39 hands before blind-off)

    that you would be 7️⃣ employing at a True M of 12.6 (with 126 hands before blind-off)?

    If

    he believes that a player with 20 M 7️⃣ has 20 rounds of play to wait for a good hand

    before he is blinded off (and again, 20 rounds 7️⃣ at a ten-player table would be 200

    hands), then his assessment of your likelihood of getting “…a better hand in 7️⃣ a better

    situation, with a reasonable amount of money left,” would be quite different than if he

    realized that his 7️⃣ True M was 9 (90 hands remaining till blind-off), or in a faster

    blind structure, as low as 3.9 (only 7️⃣ 39 hands remaining until blind-off).

    Those

    radically different blind-off times would drastically alter the frequencies of

    occurrence of the premium starting 7️⃣ hands, and aren’t the likelihood of getting those

    hands what his M theory and strategy are based on?

    A Blackjack Analogy

    For 7️⃣ blackjack

    players—and I know a lot of my readers come from the world of blackjack card

    counting—Harrington’s M might best 7️⃣ be compared to the “running count.” If I am using a

    traditional balanced card counting system at a casino blackjack 7️⃣ table, and I make my

    playing and betting decisions according to my running count, I will often be playing

    incorrectly, 7️⃣ because the structure of the game—the number of decks in play and the

    number of cards that have already been 7️⃣ dealt since the last shuffle—must be taken into

    account in order for me to adjust my running count to a 7️⃣ “true” count.

    A +6 running

    count in a single-deck game means something entirely different from a +6 running count

    in a 7️⃣ six-deck shoe game. And even within the same game, a +6 running count at the

    beginning of the deck or 7️⃣ shoe means something different from a +6 running count toward

    the end of the deck or shoe.

    Professional blackjack players adjust 7️⃣ their running count

    to the true count to estimate their advantage accurately and make their strategy

    decisions accordingly. The unadjusted 7️⃣ running count cannot do this with any accuracy.

    Harrington’s M could be considered a kind of Running M, which must 7️⃣ be adjusted to a

    True M in order for it to have any validity as a survival gauge.

    When Harrington’s

    Running 7️⃣ M Is Occasionally Correct

    Harrington’s Running M can “accidentally” become

    correct without a True M adjustment when a player is very 7️⃣ short-stacked in a tournament

    with lengthy blind levels. For example, if a player has an M of 4 or 5 7️⃣ in a tournament

    with 2-hour blind levels, then in the early rounds of that blind level, since he could

    expect 7️⃣ to go through the same blind costs 4 or 5 times, Harrington’s unadjusted M would

    be the same as True 7️⃣ M.

    This might also occur when the game is short-handed, since

    players will be going through the blinds more frequently. (This 7️⃣ same thing happens in

    blackjack games where the running count equals the true count at specific points in the

    deal. 7️⃣ For example, if a blackjack player is using a count-per-deck adjustment in a

    six-deck game, then when the dealer is 7️⃣ down to the last deck in play, the running count

    will equal the true count.)

    In rare situations like these, where 7️⃣ Running M equals True

    M, Harrington’s “red zone” strategies may be correct—not because Harrington was correct

    in his application of 7️⃣ M, but because of the tournament structure and the player’s poor

    chip position at that point.

    In tournaments with 60-minute blind 7️⃣ levels, this type of

    “Running M = True M” situation could only occur at a full table when a player’s 7️⃣ M is 3

    or less. And in fast tournaments with 15 or 20-minute blind levels, Harrington’s M

    could only equal 7️⃣ True M when a player’s M = 1 or less.

    Harrington’s yellow and orange

    zone strategies, however, will always be pretty 7️⃣ worthless, even in the slowest

    tournaments, because there are no tournaments with blind levels that last long enough

    to require 7️⃣ no True M adjustments.

    Why Harrington’s Strategies Can’t Be Said to Adjust

    Automatically for True M

    Some Harrington supporters may wish to 7️⃣ make a case that Dan

    Harrington made some kind of automatic adjustment for approximate True M in devising

    his yellow 7️⃣ and orange zone strategies. But in HOH II, he clearly states that M tells

    you how many rounds of the 7️⃣ table you will survive—period.

    In order to select which

    hands a player should play in these zones, based on the likelihood 7️⃣ of better hands

    occurring while the player still has a reasonable chip stack, it was necessary for

    Harrington to specify 7️⃣ some number of rounds in order to develop a table of the

    frequencies of occurrence of the starting hands. His 7️⃣ book tells us that he assumes an M

    of 20 simply means 20 rounds remaining—which we know is wrong for 7️⃣ all real-world

    tournaments.

    But for those who wish to make a case that Harrington made some kind of a

    True M 7️⃣ adjustment that he elected not to inform us about, my answer is that it’s

    impossible that whatever adjustment he used 7️⃣ would be even close to accurate for all

    tournaments and blind structures. If, for example, he assumed 20 M meant 7️⃣ a True M of

    12, and he developed his starting-hand frequency charts with this assumption, then his

    strategies would be 7️⃣ fairly accurate for the slowest blind structures we find in major

    events. But they would still be very wrong for 7️⃣ the faster blind structures we find in

    events with smaller buy-ins and in most online tournaments.

    In HOH II, he does 7️⃣ provide

    quite a few sample hands from online tournaments, with no mention whatsoever of the

    blind structures of these events, 7️⃣ but 15-minute blind levels are less common online

    than 5-, 8-, and 12-minute blind levels. Thus, we are forced to 7️⃣ believe that what Mason

    Malmuth claims is true: that Harrington considers his strategies correct for

    tournaments of all speeds. So 7️⃣ it is doubtful that he made any True M adjustments, even

    for slower tournament structures. Simply put, Harrington is oblivious 7️⃣ to the true

    mathematics of M.

    Simplifying True M for Real-Life Tournament Strategy

    If all poker

    tournaments had the same blind structure, 7️⃣ then we could just memorize chart data that

    would indicate True M with any chip stack at any point in 7️⃣ any blind level.

    Unfortunately, there are almost as many blind structures as there are

    tournaments.

    There are ways, however, that Harrington’s 7️⃣ Running M could be adjusted to

    an approximate True M without literally figuring out the exact cost of each blind 7️⃣ level

    at every point in the tournament. With 90-minute blind levels, after dividing your chip

    stack by the cost of 7️⃣ a round, simply divide your Running M by two, and you’ll have a

    reasonable approximation of your True M.

    With 60-minute 7️⃣ blind levels, take about 40% of

    the Running M. With 30-minute blind levels, divide the Running M by three. And 7️⃣ with 15-

    or 20-minute blind levels, divide the Running M by five. These will be far from perfect

    adjustments, but 7️⃣ they will be much closer to reality than Harrington’s unadjusted

    Running M numbers.

    Do Tournament Players Need to Know Their “True 7️⃣ M”?

    Am I suggesting

    that poker tournament players should start estimating their True M, instead of the

    Running M that Harrington 7️⃣ proposes? No, because I disagree with Harrington’s emphasis

    on survival and basing so much of your play on your cards. 7️⃣ I just want to make it clear

    that M, as defined and described by Harrington in HOH II, is wrong, 7️⃣ a bad measure of

    what it purports and aims to measure. It is based on an error in logic, in 7️⃣ which a

    crucial factor in the formula—tournament structure—is ignored (the same error that

    David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth have made 7️⃣ continually in their writings and analyses

    of tournaments.)

    Although it would be possible for a player to correct Harrington’s

    mistake by 7️⃣ estimating his True M at any point in a tournament, I don’t advise it.

    Admittedly, it’s a pain in the 7️⃣ ass trying to calculate True M exactly, not something

    most players could do quickly and easily at the tables. But 7️⃣ that’s not the reason I

    think True M should be ignored.

    The reason is related to the overarching difference

    between Harrington’s 7️⃣ strategies and mine, which I mentioned at the beginning of this

    article. That is: It’s a grave error for tournament 7️⃣ players to focus on how long they

    can survive if they just sit and wait for premium cards. That’s not 7️⃣ what tournaments

    are about. It’s a matter of perspective. When you look at your stack size, you

    shouldn’t be thinking, 7️⃣ “How long can I survive?” but, “How much of a threat do I pose

    to my opponents?”

    The whole concept of 7️⃣ M is geared to the player who is tight and

    conservative, waiting for premium hands (or premium enough at that 7️⃣ point). Harrington’s

    strategy is overly focused on cards as the primary pot entering factor, as opposed to

    entering pots based 7️⃣ predominately (or purely) on position, chip stack, and

    opponent(s).

    In The Poker Tournament Formula, I suggest that players assess their chip

    7️⃣ position by considering their chip stacks as a simple multiple of the current big

    blind. If you have 3000 in 7️⃣ chips, and the big blind is 100, then you have 30 big

    blinds. This number, 30, tells you nothing about 7️⃣ how many rounds you can survive if you

    don’t enter any pots. But frankly, that doesn’t matter. What matters in 7️⃣ a tournament is

    that you have sufficient chips to employ your full range of skills, and—just as

    important—that you have 7️⃣ sufficient chips to threaten your opponents with a raise, and

    an all-in raise if that is what you need for 7️⃣ the threat to be successful to win you the

    pot.

    Your ability to to be a threat is directly related to 7️⃣ the health of your chip

    stack in relation to the current betting level, which is most strongly influenced by

    the 7️⃣ size of the blinds. In my PTF strategy, tournaments are not so much about survival

    as they are about stealing 7️⃣ pots. If you’re going to depend on surviving until you get

    premium cards to get you to the final table, 7️⃣ you’re going to see very few final tables.

    You must outplay your opponents with the cards you are dealt, not 7️⃣ wait and hope for

    cards that are superior to theirs.

    I’m not suggesting that you ignore the size of the

    preflop 7️⃣ pot and focus all of your attention on the size of the big blind. You should

    always total the chips 7️⃣ in the pot preflop, but not because you want to know how long

    you can survive if you sit there 7️⃣ waiting for your miracle cards. You simply need to

    know the size of the preflop pot so you can make 7️⃣ your betting and playing decisions,

    both pre- and post-flop, based on all of the factors in the current hand.

    What other

    7️⃣ players, if any have entered the pot? Is this a pot you can steal if you don’t have a

    viable 7️⃣ hand? Is this pot worth the risk of an attempted steal? If you have a drawing

    hand, do you have 7️⃣ the odds to call, or are you giving an opponent the odds to call? Are

    any of your opponent(s) pot-committed? 7️⃣ Do you have sufficient chips to play a

    speculative hand for this pot? There are dozens of reasons why you 7️⃣ need to know the

    size of a pot you are considering getting involved in, but M is not a factor 7️⃣ in any of

    these decisions.

    So, again, although you will always be totaling the chips in the pot

    in order to 7️⃣ make betting and playing decisions, sitting there and estimating your

    blind-off time by dividing your chip stack by the total 7️⃣ chips in the preflop pot is an

    exercise in futility. It has absolutely nothing to do with your actual chances 7️⃣ of

    survival. You shouldn’t even be thinking in terms of survival, but of

    domination.

    Harrington on Hold’em II versus The Poker 7️⃣ Tournament Formula: A Sample

    Situation

    Let’s say the blinds are 100-200, and you have 4000 in chips. Harrington

    would have you 7️⃣ thinking that your M is 13 (yellow zone), and he advises: “…you have to

    switch to smallball moves: get in, 7️⃣ win the pot, but get out when you encounter

    resistance.” (HOH II, p. 136)

    In The Poker Tournament Formula basic strategy 7️⃣ for fast

    tournaments (PTF p. 158), I categorize this chip stack equal to 20 big blinds as “very

    short,” and 7️⃣ my advice is: “…you must face the fact that you are not all that far from

    the exit door. But 7️⃣ you still have enough chips to scare any player who does not have a

    really big chip stack and/or a 7️⃣ really strong hand. Two things are important when you

    are this short on chips. One is that unless you have 7️⃣ an all-in raising hand as defined

    below, do not enter any pot unless you are the first in. And second, 7️⃣ any bet when you

    are this short will always be all-in.”

    The fact is, you don’t have enough chips for

    “smallball” 7️⃣ when you’re this short on chips in a fast tournament, and one of the most

    profitable moves you can make 7️⃣ is picking on Harrington-type players who think it’s time

    for smallball.

    Harrington sees this yellow zone player as still having 13 7️⃣ rounds of

    play (130 hands, which is a big overestimation resulting from his failure to adjust to

    True M) to 7️⃣ look for a pretty decent hand to get involved with. My thinking in a fast

    tournament, by contrast, would be: 7️⃣ “The blinds are now 100-200. By the time they get

    around to me fifteen minutes from now, they will be 7️⃣ 200-400. If I don’t make a move

    before the blinds get around to me, and I have to go through 7️⃣ those blinds, my 4000 will

    become 3400, and the chip position I’m in right now, which is having a stack 7️⃣ equal to

    20 times the big blind, will be reduced to a stack of only 8.5 times the big blind.

    7️⃣ Right now, my chip stack is scary. Ten to fifteen minutes from now (in 7-8 hands), any

    legitimate hand will 7️⃣ call me down.”

    So, my advice to players this short on chips in a

    fast tournament is to raise all-in with 7️⃣ any two cards from any late position seat in an

    unopened pot. My raising hands from earlier positions include all 7️⃣ pairs higher than 66,

    and pretty much any two high cards. And my advice with these hands is to raise 7️⃣ or

    reraise all-in, including calling any all-ins. You need a double-up so badly here that

    you simply must take big 7️⃣ risks. As per The Poker Tournament Formula (p. 159): “When

    you’re this short on chips you must take risks, because 7️⃣ the risk of tournament death is

    greater if you don’t play than if you do.”

    There is also a side effect 7️⃣ of using a loose

    aggressive strategy when you have enough chips to hurt your opponents, and that is that

    you 7️⃣ build an image of a player who is not to be messed with, and that is always the

    preferred image 7️⃣ to have in any no-limit hold’em tournament. But while Harrington sees

    this player surviving for another 13 rounds of play, 7️⃣ the reality is that he will

    survive fewer than 4 more rounds in a fast tournament, and within two rounds 7️⃣ he will be

    so short-stacked that he will be unable to scare anybody out of a pot, and even a

    7️⃣ double-up will not get him anywhere near a competitive chip stack.

    The Good News for

    Poker Tournament Players

    The good news for 7️⃣ poker tournament players is that

    Harrington’s books have become so popular, and his M theory so widely accepted as valid

    7️⃣ by many players and “experts” alike, that today’s NLH tournaments are overrun with his

    disciples playing the same tight, conservative 7️⃣ style through the early green zone blind

    levels, then predictably entering pots with more marginal hands as their M

    diminishes—which 7️⃣ their early tight play almost always guarantees. And, though many of

    the top players know that looser, more aggressive play 7️⃣ is what’s getting them to the

    final tables, I doubt that Harrington’s misguided advice will be abandoned by the

    masses 7️⃣ any time soon.

    In a recent issue of Card Player magazine (March 28, 2007),

    columnist Steve Zolotow reviewed The Poker Tournament 7️⃣ Formula, stating: “Snyder

    originates a complicated formula for determining the speed of a tournament, which he

    calls the patience factor. 7️⃣ Dan Harrington’s discussion of M and my columns on CPR cover

    this same material, but much more accurately. Your strategy 7️⃣ should be based not upon

    the speed of the tournament as a whole, but on your current chip position in 7️⃣ relation

    to current blinds. If your M (the number of rounds you can survive without playing a

    hand) is 20, 7️⃣ you should base your strategy primarily on that fact. Whether the blinds

    will double and reduce your M to 10 7️⃣ in 15 minutes or four hours should not have much

    influence on your strategic decisions.”

    Zolotow’s “CPR” articles were simply a 7️⃣ couple

    of columns he wrote last year in which he did nothing but explain Harrington’s M

    theory, as if it 7️⃣ were 100% correct. He added nothing to the theory of M, and is clearly

    as ignorant of the math as 7️⃣ Harrington is.

    So money-making opportunities in poker

    tournaments continue to abound.

    In any case, I want to thank SlackerInc for posting a

    7️⃣ question on our poker discussion forum, in which he pointed out many of the key

    differences between Harrington’s short-stack strategies 7️⃣ and those in The Poker

    Tournament Formula. He wanted to know why our pot-entering strategies were so far

    apart.

    The answer 7️⃣ is that the strategies in my book are specifically identified as

    strategies for fast tournaments of a specific speed, so 7️⃣ my assumptions, based on a

    player’s current chip stack, would usually be that the player is about five times more

    7️⃣ desperate than Harrington would see him (his Running M of 20 being roughly equivalent

    to my True M of about 7️⃣ 4). ♠

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