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    Chances of card combinations in poker

    In poker, the probability of each type of 5-card

    hand can be computed by calculating 🧲 the proportion of hands of that type among all

    possible hands.

    History [ edit ]

    Probability and gambling have been ideas since 🧲 long

    before the invention of poker. The development of probability theory in the late 1400s

    was attributed to gambling; when 🧲 playing a game with high stakes, players wanted to

    know what the chance of winning would be. In 1494, Fra 🧲 Luca Paccioli released his work

    Summa de arithmetica, geometria, proportioni e proportionalita which was the first

    written text on probability. 🧲 Motivated by Paccioli's work, Girolamo Cardano (1501-1576)

    made further developments in probability theory. His work from 1550, titled Liber de

    🧲 Ludo Aleae, discussed the concepts of probability and how they were directly related to

    gambling. However, his work did not 🧲 receive any immediate recognition since it was not

    published until after his death. Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) also contributed to

    probability 🧲 theory. His friend, Chevalier de Méré, was an avid gambler with the goal to

    become wealthy from it. De Méré 🧲 tried a new mathematical approach to a gambling game

    but did not get the desired results. Determined to know why 🧲 his strategy was

    unsuccessful, he consulted with Pascal. Pascal's work on this problem began an

    important correspondence between him and 🧲 fellow mathematician Pierre de Fermat

    (1601-1665). Communicating through letters, the two continued to exchange their ideas

    and thoughts. These interactions 🧲 led to the conception of basic probability theory. To

    this day, many gamblers still rely on the basic concepts of 🧲 probability theory in order

    to make informed decisions while gambling.[1][2]

    Frequencies [ edit ]

    5-card poker

    hands [ edit ]

    An Euler diagram 🧲 depicting poker hands and their odds from a typical

    American 9/6 Jacks or Better machine

    In straight poker and five-card draw, 🧲 where there

    are no hole cards, players are simply dealt five cards from a deck of 52.

    The following

    chart enumerates 🧲 the (absolute) frequency of each hand, given all combinations of five

    cards randomly drawn from a full deck of 52 🧲 without replacement. Wild cards are not

    considered. In this chart:

    Distinct hands is the number of different ways to draw the

    🧲 hand, not counting different suits.

    is the number of different ways to draw the hand,

    not counting different suits. Frequency is 🧲 the number of ways to draw the hand,

    including the same card values in different suits.

    is the number of ways 🧲 to draw the

    hand, the same card values in different suits. The Probability of drawing a given hand

    is calculated 🧲 by dividing the number of ways of drawing the hand ( Frequency ) by the

    total number of 5-card hands 🧲 (the sample space; ( 52 5 ) = 2 , 598 , 960 {\textstyle

    {52 \choose 5}=2,598,960} 4 / 2,598,960 🧲 , or one in 649,740. One would then expect to

    draw this hand about once in every 649,740 draws, or 🧲 nearly 0.000154% of the time.

    of

    drawing a given hand is calculated by dividing the number of ways of drawing the 🧲 hand (

    ) by the total number of 5-card hands (the sample space; , or one in 649,740. One would

    🧲 then expect to draw this hand about once in every 649,740 draws, or nearly 0.000154% of

    the time. Cumulative probability 🧲 refers to the probability of drawing a hand as good as

    or better than the specified one. For example, the 🧲 probability of drawing three of a

    kind is approximately 2.11%, while the probability of drawing a hand at least as 🧲 good

    as three of a kind is about 2.87%. The cumulative probability is determined by adding

    one hand's probability with 🧲 the probabilities of all hands above it.

    refers to the

    probability of drawing a hand as good as the specified one. 🧲 For example, the

    probability of drawing three of a kind is approximately 2.11%, while the probability of

    drawing a hand 🧲 as good as three of a kind is about 2.87%. The cumulative probability is

    determined by adding one hand's probability 🧲 with the probabilities of all hands above

    it. The Odds are defined as the ratio of the number of ways 🧲 not to draw the hand, to

    the number of ways to draw it. In statistics, this is called odds against 🧲 . For

    instance, with a royal flush, there are 4 ways to draw one, and 2,598,956 ways to draw

    something 🧲 else, so the odds against drawing a royal flush are 2,598,956 : 4, or 649,739

    : 1. The formula for 🧲 establishing the odds can also be stated as (1/p) - 1 : 1 , where

    p is the aforementioned probability.

    are 🧲 defined as the ratio of the number of ways to

    draw the hand, to the number of ways to draw 🧲 it. In statistics, this is called . For

    instance, with a royal flush, there are 4 ways to draw one, 🧲 and 2,598,956 ways to draw

    something else, so the odds against drawing a royal flush are 2,598,956 : 4, or 🧲 649,739

    : 1. The formula for establishing the odds can also be stated as , where is the

    aforementioned probability. 🧲 The values given for Probability, Cumulative probability,

    and Odds are rounded off for simplicity; the Distinct hands and Frequency values 🧲 are

    exact.

    The nCr function on most scientific calculators can be used to calculate hand

    frequencies; entering nCr with 52 and 🧲 5 , for example, yields ( 52 5 ) = 2 , 598 , 960

    {\textstyle {52 \choose 5}=2,598,960} as 🧲 above.

    The royal flush is a case of the

    straight flush. It can be formed 4 ways (one for each suit), 🧲 giving it a probability of

    0.000154% and odds of 649,739 : 1.

    When ace-low straights and ace-low straight flushes

    are not 🧲 counted, the probabilities of each are reduced: straights and straight flushes

    each become 9/10 as common as they otherwise would 🧲 be. The 4 missed straight flushes

    become flushes and the 1,020 missed straights become no pair.

    Note that since suits

    have 🧲 no relative value in poker, two hands can be considered identical if one hand can

    be transformed into the other 🧲 by swapping suits. For example, the hand 3♣ 7♣ 8♣ Q♠ A♠

    is identical to 3♦ 7♦ 8♦ Q♥ A♥ 🧲 because replacing all of the clubs in the first hand

    with diamonds and all of the spades with hearts produces 🧲 the second hand. So

    eliminating identical hands that ignore relative suit values, there are only 134,459

    distinct hands.

    The number of 🧲 distinct poker hands is even smaller. For example, 3♣ 7♣

    8♣ Q♠ A♠ and 3♦ 7♣ 8♦ Q♥ A♥ are 🧲 not identical hands when just ignoring suit assignments

    because one hand has three suits, while the other hand has only 🧲 two—that difference

    could affect the relative value of each hand when there are more cards to come.

    However, even though 🧲 the hands are not identical from that perspective, they still form

    equivalent poker hands because each hand is an A-Q-8-7-3 🧲 high card hand. There are

    7,462 distinct poker hands.

    7-card poker hands [ edit ]

    In some popular variations of

    poker such 🧲 as Texas hold 'em, the most widespread poker variant overall,[3] a player

    uses the best five-card poker hand out of 🧲 seven cards.

    The frequencies are calculated

    in a manner similar to that shown for 5-card hands,[4] except additional complications

    arise due 🧲 to the extra two cards in the 7-card poker hand. The total number of distinct

    7-card hands is ( 52 🧲 7 ) = 133,784,560 {\textstyle {52 \choose 7}=133{,}784{,}560} . It

    is notable that the probability of a no-pair hand is 🧲 lower than the probability of a

    one-pair or two-pair hand.

    The Ace-high straight flush or royal flush is slightly more

    frequent 🧲 (4324) than the lower straight flushes (4140 each) because the remaining two

    cards can have any value; a King-high straight 🧲 flush, for example, cannot have the Ace

    of its suit in the hand (as that would make it ace-high instead).

    (The 🧲 frequencies

    given are exact; the probabilities and odds are approximate.)

    Since suits have no

    relative value in poker, two hands can 🧲 be considered identical if one hand can be

    transformed into the other by swapping suits. Eliminating identical hands that ignore

    🧲 relative suit values leaves 6,009,159 distinct 7-card hands.

    The number of distinct

    5-card poker hands that are possible from 7 cards 🧲 is 4,824. Perhaps surprisingly, this

    is fewer than the number of 5-card poker hands from 5 cards, as some 5-card 🧲 hands are

    impossible with 7 cards (e.g. 7-high and 8-high).

    5-card lowball poker hands [ edit

    ]

    Some variants of poker, called 🧲 lowball, use a low hand to determine the winning hand.

    In most variants of lowball, the ace is counted as 🧲 the lowest card and straights and

    flushes don't count against a low hand, so the lowest hand is the five-high 🧲 hand

    A-2-3-4-5, also called a wheel. The probability is calculated based on ( 52 5 ) = 2 ,

    598 🧲 , 960 {\textstyle {52 \choose 5}=2,598,960} , the total number of 5-card

    combinations. (The frequencies given are exact; the probabilities 🧲 and odds are

    approximate.)

    Hand Distinct hands Frequency Probability Cumulative Odds against 5-high

    1 1,024 0.0394% 0.0394% 2,537.05 : 1 6-high 🧲 5 5,120 0.197% 0.236% 506.61 : 1 7-high 15

    15,360 0.591% 0.827% 168.20 : 1 8-high 35 35,840 1.38% 2.21% 🧲 71.52 : 1 9-high 70 71,680

    2.76% 4.96% 35.26 : 1 10-high 126 129,024 4.96% 9.93% 19.14 : 1 Jack-high 🧲 210 215,040

    8.27% 18.2% 11.09 : 1 Queen-high 330 337,920 13.0% 31.2% 6.69 : 1 King-high 495 506,880

    19.5% 50.7% 🧲 4.13 : 1 Total 1,287 1,317,888 50.7% 50.7% 0.97 : 1

    As can be seen from the

    table, just over half 🧲 the time a player gets a hand that has no pairs, threes- or

    fours-of-a-kind. (50.7%)

    If aces are not low, simply 🧲 rotate the hand descriptions so

    that 6-high replaces 5-high for the best hand and ace-high replaces king-high as the

    worst 🧲 hand.

    Some players do not ignore straights and flushes when computing the low

    hand in lowball. In this case, the lowest 🧲 hand is A-2-3-4-6 with at least two suits.

    Probabilities are adjusted in the above table such that "5-high" is not 🧲 listed",

    "6-high" has one distinct hand, and "King-high" having 330 distinct hands,

    respectively. The Total line also needs adjusting.

    7-card lowball 🧲 poker hands [ edit

    ]

    In some variants of poker a player uses the best five-card low hand selected from

    seven 🧲 cards. In most variants of lowball, the ace is counted as the lowest card and

    straights and flushes don't count 🧲 against a low hand, so the lowest hand is the

    five-high hand A-2-3-4-5, also called a wheel. The probability is 🧲 calculated based on (

    52 7 ) = 133 , 784 , 560 {\textstyle {52 \choose 7}=133,784,560} , the total 🧲 number of

    7-card combinations.

    The table does not extend to include five-card hands with at least

    one pair. Its "Total" represents 🧲 the 95.4% of the time that a player can select a

    5-card low hand without any pair.

    Hand Frequency Probability Cumulative 🧲 Odds against

    5-high 781,824 0.584% 0.584% 170.12 : 1 6-high 3,151,360 2.36% 2.94% 41.45 : 1 7-high

    7,426,560 5.55% 8.49% 🧲 17.01 : 1 8-high 13,171,200 9.85% 18.3% 9.16 : 1 9-high

    19,174,400 14.3% 32.7% 5.98 : 1 10-high 23,675,904 17.7% 🧲 50.4% 4.65 : 1 Jack-high

    24,837,120 18.6% 68.9% 4.39 : 1 Queen-high 21,457,920 16.0% 85.0% 5.23 : 1 King-high

    13,939,200 🧲 10.4% 95.4% 8.60 : 1 Total 127,615,488 95.4% 95.4% 0.05 : 1

    (The frequencies

    given are exact; the probabilities and odds 🧲 are approximate.)

    If aces are not low,

    simply rotate the hand descriptions so that 6-high replaces 5-high for the best hand

    🧲 and ace-high replaces king-high as the worst hand.

    Some players do not ignore straights

    and flushes when computing the low hand 🧲 in lowball. In this case, the lowest hand is

    A-2-3-4-6 with at least two suits. Probabilities are adjusted in the 🧲 above table such

    that "5-high" is not listed, "6-high" has 781,824 distinct hands, and "King-high" has

    21,457,920 distinct hands, respectively. 🧲 The Total line also needs adjusting.

    See also

    [ edit ]

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